AV

The construction industry as a pyramid scheme

In one of the last interviews of M.Kalashnikov with the general director of the CHLMZ V.Boglaev, the topic of modern housing construction in the largest cities of the country as a kind of financial pyramid was raised on Roy TV, and apartments in the MKD as the equivalent of a Chubais voucher.

In support of this thesis, V.Boglaev cited the following figures: the volume of the mortgage portfolio of banks last year amounted to about 20 trillion rubles. Accordingly, if we calculate the difference between mortgage lending rates and preferential mortgages, which is about 10%, the support of this enterprise costs the state 2 trillion rubles a year. What is noteworthy: this figure — 2 trillion — beats the annual profit of the domestic banking sector. But, for example, several hundred billion rubles are allocated to aircraft construction per year, whereas only working capital for the construction of a declared thousand aircraft until 2030 (then this figure swam downwards) requires several times more. So along with the development, the beneficiaries of what is happening are humanly understandable.

As you know, up to 70% of housing in the MKD remains unsold in the country. If you pull the stopcock and do not build anything else from today, then it will take five to six years to realize what you have done. M.Delyagin proposes democratizing measures: option A - forced sale by developers of stale goods to the state at prices at the time of construction plus a margin of 10 to 17%, option B - requisition of unsold housing followed by by providing it to military families who have not been able to get apartments for years.

You can also add spices to taste: about 33 m2 per person by 2030 and 38 m2 by 2036, in accordance with the national goals set by the President of the Russian Federation, despite the fact that in megacities and major cities the share of studios in houses under construction is about a third. Plus, the hyperpolarization of the country's space with the contraction of the population into a limited number of urban centers and the denudation of the rest of the territory — to such an extent that, according to S. Sobyanin, 25 million people now live in Moscow, 40 million in the Moscow agglomeration, and 9 million in St. Petersburg.

Boglaev's forecast: within three years, prices for idle housing will fall not by 10-15%, as predicted by real estate experts, but by three or more times. One can imagine what kind of cataclysms this will cause in the construction industry, the segment of production of building materials, and the design sphere. And if we add in the inevitable upheavals in the migration area, how many Ravshans with Jamshuts will be released at once.

According to V. Boglaev, the construction industry has turned into a nasty fat worm that sucks all the juices out of the social organism…

Photo by Anton Vaganov/TASS

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