An article by the well-known economist Y. Mirkin appeared on the Internet: "Stolypin's reforms cannot be repeated in any way, for this there are no people in Russia."
The author cites well-known discouraging figures of population decline - everywhere, with the exception of Moscow and the region, St. Petersburg, the Southern and North Caucasian districts and the Kaliningrad and Voronezh regions.
“According to the“ low ”version of the forecast of Rosstat, in 2035, 134.4 million people will live in Russia, according to the average - 143 million people, according to the“ high ”version - 150.1 million people, - writes Y. Mirkin. - According to the "low" forecast for 15 years, the migration growth of the population of Russia will amount to 0.6 million people, according to the average - 3.9 million people, according to the best - 5.5 million people. ... Over the past 15 years, in 2006-2020, 3.4 million people moved to Russia as migrants, mostly to cities. So far, everything is going according to the worst case. ... At the beginning of 2021, the population in Russia turned out to be less than that assumed by the worst forecast of Rosstat. "
Siberia and the Far East reproduce this dynamic. “In 1991, the population of Siberia and the Far East was 29.2 million people. At the beginning of 2021, after 30 years, 25.1 million people decreased by 14%. ... According to the average version of the forecast of Rosstat, the number of people living in Siberia and the Far East will decrease by 2036 from 25.1 million people. up to 23.8 million people, just for a million-plus city ”.
Y. Mirkin cites statistical data on Moscow, the region and St. Petersburg: “In Moscow in 1991 there were 9 million people, by the beginning of 2021 - 12.7 million people, in the Moscow region - 6.7 and 7.7 million people respectively. In St. Petersburg - 5 million people. in 1991 and 5.2 million by the beginning of 2021. These three largest centers have grown by 4.9 million people in 30 years. And they are not going to let them go, they are only building, they surround themselves with human beings, forcing an ever new human mass. What is Rosstat's forecast until 2036? Population growth in these centers by another 1-1.5 million people. " Despite the fact that in the Central Federal District (excluding Moscow and the Moscow Region) from 1991 to 2020, the population decreased by 3.6 million people, in the North-West (excluding St. Petersburg) - by 2.6 million people.
The author calls several other cities “richer, where you can eat well” - Krasnodar, Sochi, Voronezh, etc. In the Southern and North Caucasian federal districts - plus 5 million people. for 30 years. "These regions, together with the Kaliningrad region, are the center of attraction for those who spent their lives" in the north "and who would like to live in warmth in their later years."
So where can we find young people for the new million-plus cities? - asks Y. Mirkin. “Stolypin's reforms cannot be repeated in any way, for this there are no people in Russia. Not to drive them to new places on the order, as in Soviet times? Do not send the same "on the Komsomol"? Can't build and populate with prisoners? "
He sees the prospect, firstly, in the restoration of a comfortable habitat in thousands of Russian settlements, and secondly, in the modernization of infrastructure. And although the priorities are set in this sequence - first the shops, then the networks, he concludes with the last story: “In Russia, 42.5% of the street water supply network, 46.8% of the street sewer network need to be replaced (Rosstat, 2020). 47.2% of public roads do not meet regulatory requirements (Rosstat, 2018). Upgrading infrastructure across the country is a huge investment and a dramatic acceleration in the economy. It is more convenient to live - a path to large families, to an increase in the birth rate. Project of the century! How could we get involved in it, striking everyone in size. "
Question: what about jobs, but a housing standard, and social infrastructure facilities - can you do without all this?